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[杂谈] 美国从叙利亚撤军的地缘剖析

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发表于 2019-10-31 11:46:18 |显示全部楼层
  
美国从叙利亚撤军的地缘剖析
  
作者:白云先生
  
  
最近的国内外的时局,有两大焦点。一个焦点是,美国滚出中东,未来的中东格局会如何演变。另一个焦点是,美国金融战败之后,跨国资本未来将如何融入中国和加入中国。本文先讲第一个问题,第二个问题,我们后面再单独讲。
  
  
从整体来看,目前的局势不是一般的乱,但是从长期来看,现在所处的阶段就是黎明破晓之前的时刻,很快就会曙光初现的那个阶段。也就是说,短期看很乱,长期看是好事。可谓是,天下大乱,形势大好。
  
  
我们先来说说中东的事。中东目前的焦点,是美国撤军,和土耳其攻打库尔德人武装。
  
  
  
先来给美国从叙利亚撤军这件事定个性,它是美国在中东的军事失败,也是美国中东战略的总破产。这次我们甚至可以说,美国在叙利亚的军事失败宣告了,从此之后,美国在全世界都不可能再打赢一场局部战争,都不可能再赢得任何规模以上冲突军事上的胜利。
  
  
  
请大家一定要记住这个基本判断,美军现在已经不行了。
  
  
  
接下来我们来讲讲,美国为什么要从叙利亚撤军。一方面的原因是,美国在叙利亚,没有完成既定的战争目标。打了败仗就得撤退,这个我们不难理解。另一方面的原因,这和美国地缘战略上的转向有关系。
  
  
  
在美国之前的地缘战略中,因为西方长期遭到苏俄的威胁,所以他们认为苏联俄罗斯才是欧美的最大威胁。在他们的地缘战略中,苏俄一直是亚欧大陆上的心脏地带。俄罗斯的优先级,从二战之后,就一直是最高的。优先级排在第二的,则是中东地区。因为控制了中东,第一可以阻止俄罗斯南下,阻止俄罗斯冲出黑海染指印度洋。第二可以控制中东的石油,把美元的信用捆绑在石油贸易之上,坐收保护费。第三可以控制主要的海运航道,垄断东西方的贸易。在海路上把欧亚大陆拦腰斩断。第四,如果再控制住乌克兰,那么就可以把欧亚大陆,从陆上也拦腰斩断,防止欧亚大陆一体化。所以,中东很重要,乌克兰也很重要。
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
在这盘大棋中,土耳其和乌克兰,他们是连接东西方的两个关键通道。美国切断乌克兰通道,这个大背景,才导致土耳其决定脱离美国,重新开一个主通道。这符合俄罗斯的利益,也符合欧洲的利益。更符合土耳其的利益,因为对土耳其来说,美国把乌克兰堵死,未来土耳其会成为新的主要通道,那么过路费的利益非常巨大,是躺着赚大钱的大生意。
  
  
  
为什么土耳其敢把美国拉下马,和俄罗斯一拍即合,因为这背后的利益是非常巨大的。而且背后还有中俄欧的支持,所以埃尔多安根本不拿美国当回事。
  
  
而中国在美国的这盘棋中,则长期以来被美国人认为,只是处于亚欧大陆上边缘地带的边缘国家。是的,大家没听错,美国人长期以来,都认为中国是一个边缘国家。
  
怎么遏制中国这个边缘国家呢,美国的纵横家们认为,只要用日本这个盟友来制衡中国就可以了。几年前的钓鱼岛事件,大家还有印象吧。这就是美国人按照他们的地缘政策所进行的标准操作。但是,以日本的实力,想要钳制住中国是不可能的。
  
  
而实际上,日本显然无法制衡中国,也就是说,美国的地缘政策,在对中国的认知上,是犯了严重的错误的。
  
  
这个错误的代价非常大。因为等美国反应过来的时候,醒过来的时候,再地缘战略上的调整,都已经来不及了。
  
  
为什么特朗普上台,要承诺从叙利亚撤军呢?这背后就是美国地缘战略转向的问题。直到最近几年,美国的纵横家们,才意识到,中国才是亚欧大陆的心脏地带。奥巴马重返亚太,中美南海对峙,特朗普针对中国的贸易战,以及特朗普一开始鼓吹的联俄制中,都是这个战略转向的体现。这就是美国从叙利亚撤军的深层原因。
  
  
  
  
按住葫芦起了瓢,美国战略中心的东移,资源就会更多的配置到东边,西边这边就肯定会出问题。美国从叙利亚撤军,引发了一系列的连锁反应,真可谓是牵一发而动全身。
  
  
美军撤退之后,在叙利亚北部留下了一个权力真空地带。库尔德人武装惨遭美国的抛弃。
  
  
紧接着,土耳其对库尔德人宣战。土耳其人的核心诉求有两个。一方面是打击库尔德人,目标是消灭库尔德人武装。第二个诉求,是充当欧亚大陆东西方的连接器,完成通道的焊接。
  
  
我们都知道,要焊接一个东西,中间是不可以有杂质的,否则焊缝就一定不结实。清理掉库尔德人,就是清理焊接操作中的杂质。土耳其先攻打库尔德人,把杂质清理干净。同时,还炮击美国的碉堡。因为只要美国人不全部滚蛋,这个焊缝中就会留下杂质。就无法焊接牢固。
  
  
  
看土耳其军队炮击美军的碉堡,川建国不淡定了,说要摧毁土耳其经济。还派彭斯去和埃尔多安对话。
  
  
  
这就是美国人在中东的核心诉求,自己撤军了,但是要保留一些杂质,阻挠中东管道焊接操作的完成。并且,还希望因为抢地盘这件事,能挑起土耳其和俄罗斯的冲突。美国人的如意算盘是一桃杀三士,挑起中东的大混战。但实际上这是一步假棋,因为和通道焊接的利益相比,那点地其实不算什么特别巨大的利益。果然,土耳其和俄罗斯没打起来,和叙利亚也没打起来。
  
  
  
  
特朗普精通交易的艺术,埃尔多安更精通交易的艺术。而且,埃尔多安的战略能力和战略定力,显然是远超特朗普的,他是一个能做大生意的人。
  
  
大家还记得之前俄土伊几年前,曾经达成过一个中东协议吧?这就是之前的通道焊接操作。为了阻挠这个操作,美国人急坏了,先是用IS,往焊缝里面掺沙子,接着又用库尔德人往焊缝里面掺沙子。把这个事阻挠了好几年。现在呢,IS被清理了,库尔德人投降了,这些沙子杂质都被清理干净了。
  
  
美国人本来想通过撤军,来搅得一手好屎,结果是赔了夫人又折兵。库尔德人飞快的投降了,土耳其和俄罗斯之间飞快的达成了新的默契。如果不出意外,俄土伊之间,很快就会进行新的焊接操作。这个通道焊接起来,东西方的连接就成功了。欧亚大陆在陆权上,就把美国挤了出去。
  
  
  
被挤出去的,不仅有美国,还有欧洲。虽然土耳其连接东西方,充当连接通道这件事,是符合欧洲利益的,欧洲是支持的。但是,这个通道的开关,欧洲人是控制不了的,以至于它在中东事务上,彻底失去了话语权。
  
  
对于欧洲人来说,一旦欧洲缺席情况下的通道焊接完成,那么就意味着未来的欧洲人,只能沦为俄土伊,以及某个特大国的韭菜,就会处于地缘上任人宰割的劣势。欧亚大陆在海上和陆上的交通,都会被上面这几个国家,进行联合垄断。
  
  
大家记住这个判断,联合垄断。这是接下来的很多年,世界秩序的一个基本地缘环境。
  
  
所以,在这件事上,欧洲人非常自相矛盾,它们既厌恶美国的霸权,厌恶被美国通过垄断交通来割欧洲的韭菜,又无法容忍,在美国滚蛋的情况下,欧洲又会缺席中东事务。
  
  
欧洲的核心诉求是什么呢?上策是能控制住土耳其,让土耳其充当其中东事务的代理人。但从目前看,埃尔多安想干大事,想自己成为大股东,不想帮欧洲人代持股权,想把欧洲甩一边去,甚至以后还想割欧洲的韭菜。欧洲的中策,是能再坑美国一把,让美国人出点血,帮欧洲人在中东事务上争一些股权。这个无异于与虎谋皮。欧洲人的下策,就是干瞪眼,安安静静做一个傻白甜的韭菜。
  
  
  
本来想坑人的,结果输了个底朝天。美国人的心态都要崩了,看建国和彭斯的脸上的表情,分明就是再说:哎呀,好气啊。
  
  
  
这么生气怎么办呢?那就炸两个伊朗油轮消消气吧。沙特一看,啥,美国你干啥?你炸了伊朗的船,还放风说是我炸的,这要打起仗来我怎么办?那个你就是想要钱是吧,好吧,我提高保护费,你赶紧的增兵来保护我吧。
  
  
  
厉害吧,通过炸了伊朗的油轮,可以让沙特多交保护费。不得不说,这是敲诈的艺术。沙特给了钱,美军增兵沙特。美国增兵沙特这件事,没有战略目的,没有长期利益,就是为了弄点钱。曾经横行霸道的美军,现在活脱脱的变成了雇佣军。太掉价了,真是落汤的凤凰不如鸡。
  
  
  
  
  
等俄罗斯土耳其和伊朗,完成了通道焊接,美国的其他盟友,比如沙特和以色列,都会成为中东大局的边缘国家。
  
  
  
如果美国不甘心,还想再来一局,它能用的棋子,也就是以色列了。因为沙特这个国家,在军事上一直是不能自理的状态,它是不能打仗的。以色列是可以打仗的。但是如果以色列入局的话,企图再次把俄土伊焊接好通道给敲断了,它会遭到灭顶的打击。因为这次它面对的不是阿拉伯人,而是俄罗斯人、突厥人、波斯人,以及其余阿拉伯人啦啦队。
  
  
这盘棋下到这里,就没法再下了,但是它还会进一步带来更多的冲击波,更大的连锁反应。
  
  
等中东大局稳定之后,完成了通道焊接,完成了多国反西方联合垄断,垄断了欧亚大陆上的东西方海陆交通。接下来,自然而然的,美国在欧亚大陆上的军事基地都会被拔掉。以及,北约也就失去了存在的价值和意义,北约的解体也会被提上日程。
  
  
  
在北约解体之后,是想做韭菜,还是想主宰自己的命运,留给欧洲人的时间不多了。如果欧洲人想掌握自己的命运,它就得先从美国的尸体上才踩过去才行,因为一个强者,首先就得获得独立。一个作为美国附庸的欧洲,永远不可能强大起来。
  
  
欧洲要在本土,和亲美势力作战,建立欧洲的军队,甚至会爆发大规模的军事冲突。
  
  
最近的局势非常的乱。通常,在扩张期和收缩期,都会出现剧烈的动荡和混乱。在稳定期会相对好一些。我们要清醒的认识到,目前的混乱和动荡是伴随美国收缩阶段所出现的现象,而不是扩张阶段的动荡。这个判断一定要记住,不要一看到风吹草动,就觉得美国人好可怕。美国现在就像是一只被抹了脖子扔在地上乱扑腾的鸡,只是看起来动静很大,其实则是快死了。以前好歹还是个纸老虎,现在就快变成地锅鸡了。
  
  
  
  
  
美国战略转身,在东线的金融战上被中国打败。在西线,美国在中东的之前所有的积累彻底破产。对于反霸权的国家和民族来说,现在就是黎明破晓前的时刻。曙光很快就会到来,新的世界秩序很快就要到来。
  
  
  
以上的这些分析和结论,请大家拭目以待。关于第二个焦点问题,美国凉了之后,跨国资本何去何从的问题,我们下篇文章再讲。
  
    
  
Geopolitical Analysis of the US withdrawal from Syria
  
Author: Mr. Baiyun
  
Translated by GuanRi Translation
  
  
Recent domestic and international situationcenters around  two major issues. One iswhat the future of the Middle East will be when the US  millitary forces withdraw from the Middle East. The otherishow the transnational  capital will be integrated into and join China after the US financial defeat.  This article will talk about the first issue and leave the other one for  later discussion.
  
  
The current situation is, on the whole,in a big chaos, butit  is like the moment before the dawn in the long run, andsoon the daybreak will  come and everything will be clear and go positive. To put it directly, it can  be said that the world is in chaos while the situation is good.
  
  
Let us first talk about the Middle East. The current focus  of the Middle East is on the withdrawal of the United States troops and the  attack on Kurdish armed forces by Turkey.
  
  
First, let’s see what the United States’ withdrawal from  Syria means. It is a military failure of the United States in the Middle East  and acompletefailure of the US Middle East strategy. This time we can even  say it is an announcement of the US military defeat in Syria. From now on,  the United States will not be able to win a partial war in the whole world,  and it is impossible to win any military victory in any conflict on any scale.
  
  
Please remember this basic judgment: the US military is  now no longer working.(Translated by GuanRi Translation www.en-ch.com)
  
  
Next, let's talk about why the United States has to  withdraw its troops from Syria. One reasonis that the United States failed to  complete its established war goals in Syria. If you lose, you have to  retreat. That’s not difficult to understand. On the other hand, this has  something to do with the geopolitical shift of the United States.
  
  
In its former geopolitical strategy, the United States  believed that the Soviet Union(Russia today) was the biggest threat to Europe  and the United States because the West had been threatened by the Soviet (Russia  today) for a long time. In their geostrategy, the Soviet (Russia today) has  always been the heartland of the Eurasian continent. The Soviet (Russia  today) has been the top priority since World War IIin America’s geopolitical  strategy. The second priority is the Middle East. That’s because the control  of the Middle East means, first,the stop of Russia from going south  andrushing out of the Black Sea to the Indian Ocean. Second, it means the control  of the oil in the Middle East, binding the credit of the dollar to the oil  trade and collecting protection fees. Third,it means the control of the main  seaway and monopolization of the trade between the East and West, thustruncatingthe  Eurasia on the sea road. Fourth, it means ifUkraine is under control, the  Eurasian continent will be cut off from the land and the integration of  Eurasiawill be prevented. Therefore, the Middle Eastand Ukraine are both very  importantin America’s geopolitical strategy.
  
  
In this big game, Turkey and Ukraineare the two key  channels connecting the East and West. The cutting- off of the Ukrainian  passage led Turkey to decide to leave the United States and reopen a main  passage. This is in the interest of Russia andof Europe, and more in line  with Turkey's interests, because when the United States blocks Ukraine,Turkey  will become the new main channel in the future. The benefits of tolls will be  huge, and it is a big business that brings big money.
  
  
Why did Turkey dare to go against the United States and stand  with Russia? because the benefitsare enormous. And with the support of China,  Russia and Europe, Erdogan did not take the United States seriously.
  
  
In this game of chess layed out by the United States,  China has long been consideredas only a marginal country on the edge of the  Eurasian continent. Yes, the Americans have long believed that China is only a  marginal country.
  
  
How to suppressthis marginal country called China? the  American strategists believe that it is enough to use the Japanese ally to  check and balance it. Do you still remember the Diaoyu Islands incidenta few  years ago? This is the standard operation of Americans in accordance with  their geopolitical policies. However, it is impossible to clamp down on China  with the strength of Japan.
  
  
In fact, Japan clearly cannot balance China. That is to  say, the geopolitical policy of the United States containsa serious mistake  in its perception of China.
  
  
The cost of this mistake is huge. Because when the United  States realized that, it was too late to adjust its geopolitical strategy.
  
  
Why did Trump promise to withdraw troops from Syriawhen he  came to power? Behind this is the issue of the geopolitical shift in the  United States. It is until recently that American strategists realized that  China is the heart of the Eurasian continent. The series of US actions, like Obama's  Return to the Asia-Pacific strategy, the confrontation between China and the  US in South China Sea, Trump's trade war against China, and the joint  sanction with Russia against China that Trumpadvocated from the beginning,  are all manifestations of this strategic turn. This is the underlying reason  for the US withdrawal from Syria.
  
  
Solve one problem only to find another cropping out.When the  US strategic center moves eastward and when more resources are allocated to  the east, the west side will definitely have problems. The withdrawal of the  United States from Syria, like the domino effect, has triggered a series of  chain reactions.
  
  
After the US military retreated, it left a power vacuum in  northern Syria. The Kurdish forces were abandoned by the United States.
  
  
Then, Turkey declared war on the Kurds. There are two purposes  here. One is to defeat the Kurdsandeliminate them. The other is to act as a  connector between the east and west of Eurasia, completing the welding of the  channel.
  
  
  
We all know that if you want to weld something, you can't  have impurities in the middle, otherwise the weld will not be strong.  Cleaning up the Kurds is to clean up the impurities in the welding operation.  Turkey first attacked the Kurds and cleaned up the impurities. At the same  time, it also shelled the American bunker. Because as long as the Americans  don't get out of the way, there will be impurities in this weld, making it  impossible to weld firmly.
  
  
Seeingthe Turkish army shellingthe bunker of the US  military, Trump was not calm any more, threatening that he would destroy the  Turkish economy whileat the same time sending Pence to talk to Erdogan.
  
  
This is the real purpose of the America government in the  Middle East. They have withdrawn their own troops, but they have to retain  some impurities to obstruct the completion of the Middle Eastwelding  operation. Moreover, they hope that the land-grabbing incident can provoke a  conflict between Turkey and Russia. The American’s wishful thinking is to use  onepeach to kill three men, provoking a big melee in the Middle East. But in  fact, this is a step of fake chess, because compared with the benefits of  channel welding, that piece of land is actually not a particularly huge  benefit. Sure enough, Turkey and Russia did not fight, neither did Syria.(Translated  by GuanRi Translation www.en-ch.com)
  
  
Trump knows well the art of trading, while Erdogan knowsbetter.  Moreover, Erdogan’s strategic ability and strategic strength are obviously  far beyond that of Trump. He is a person who can do big business.
  
  
Do you rememberthe Russian-Turkish-Iranagreement on the  Middle East reached a few years ago? This is the channel soldering operation.  The American government was exasperated at that.  In order to obstruct the operation, it used  ISIL to mix sand into the weld, and then the Kurds, causing the agreement to  be obstructed for years. Now ISILiswiped out, the Kurds surrender, and the  sand impurities are cleaned up completely.
  
  
The Americans originally wanted to create chaos by  withdrawing their troops, but the result was that they lost more. The Kurds  quickly surrendered, and Turkey and Russia quickly reached a new tacit  agreement. If there is no accident, a new welding operation will soon be  carried out among Russia,Turkey and Iran. When thisis done and the connection  between the east and the west is successful,the United States will be squeezedout  ofEurasia in land rights.
  
  
The United States will be excluded,Europe too. Although the  fact that Turkey can act as a channelconnectingthe East and Westis in the  interest and with the support of Europe, the Europeans can not control the  switch of this channel, thus it completely loses the right to speak in the  Middle East affairs.
  
  
For Europeans, once the channel welding is completed in  the absence of Europe, it will mean that the future Europe will only be in an  unfortunate geopolitical position when Eurasia's traffic on the seaand land is  jointly monopolized by the above countries.
  
  
Remember this: united monopoly. This is the basic  geopolitical environment of the world order for the many years to come.
  
  
Therefore, in this case, the Europeans are very  self-contradictory. They hate the hegemony of the United States in exploiting  Europe through Eurasiatraffic monopoly. At the same time, they cannot  tolerate Europe’s absence from the Middle East affairs when the United States  is gone.
  
  
What does Europe want? The first and best thing is to  control Turkey and make it an agent for the Middle East affairs. But judging from  the current situation, Erdogan wants to do big things. He wants to become a  major shareholder instead of helping Europeans to hold equity. Hewants to cast  off Europe. He even wants to take advantage of Europe. The second and betterthing  is to make use of the United States in helping Europeto fight for some benefits  in the Middle East affairs. This is like asking the tiger for its skin, a  doomed petition. The last and worstthing is to do nothing but being exploited.
  
  
The Americans originally wanted to scamothers, only to  find themselves suffer a great loss. The expressions on the faces of Trump  and Pence clearly show their anger and exasperation.
  
  
“What  should I do when I am so angry?”“Blow up two Iranian tankers to vent the rage.”
  
When  Saudi Arabia saw it, “hey, what are you doing? You bombed the Iranian ships  and said that I did it! What should I do if they revenge? You just want money?  okay, I will raise the protection fee, and you have to increase your troops  to protect me.”
  
  
It’s amazing that Saudi Arabia is willing to pay more  protection fees when America bombed the Iranian tankers. I have to say that  this is the art of extortion. Saudi Arabia gave moneyand the US sent more  troops. The fact that the United States has increased its military presence  in Saudi Arabia is not related to strategic purpose or long-term benefits,they  just want to get some money. The US military, once arrogant and bullying, has  now become a mercenary. It is like the saying: A phoenix in soup is not as  good as a chicken alive. What an irony!
  
  
When Russia, Turkey and Iran complete the channel welding,  other US allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, will become marginal  countries in the Middle East.
  
  
If the United States is not willing to give up and wants  to come back again, the only chess piece it can use is Israel becauseSaudi  Arabia is weak in military force and is not good at fignting while Israel can  fight. However, if Israel joins the game and attempts to break the  Russian-Turkish-Iranian welding channel again, it will be hit completely.  Because this time it’s opponents are not only the Arabs, but the Russians,  Turks, Persians, and the rest of the Arab supporters.
  
  
This game stops here, and there is no way to go on, but it  will bring more shock waves andbigger chain reactions.
  
  
When the situation of the Middle East becomes stable,the  channel welding is completed,the multi-country anti-Western joint monopoly is  completed, and the east-west sea and land traffic on the Eurasian continent  is monopolized, the US military bases on the Eurasian continent will be razedand  NATO will also loseits value and significance, then the disintegration of  NATO will be put on the agenda.
  
  
After the disintegration of NATO,little time is left for  Europe to decide whether to be exploited by America or to be its own master.  If the Europeans want to control their own destiny, they must first split  with the United States to become independent and strong. As a vassal of America,  it will never be strong.
  
  
  
If Europe must fight at homewith pro-US forces and establish  its own troops, large-scale military conflicts will be unavoidable.
  
  
The recent situation is very chaotic. Usually, during the  expansion and contraction periods, there will be severe turbulence and  confusion, while it will be relatively better during the stabilization  period. We must be soberly aware that the current chaos and turmoil are phenomena  signaling the contraction phase of the United States, not the turbulence of  the expansion phase. When something happens,don’t jump to a conclusion that the  American government is terrible. The United States is now like a chicken that  has been smearedand thrown on the ground. It seems to bestrong while, in  fact, it is feeble and dying. the American government used to be a paper  tiger, but now it will soon become a cooked chicken, not formidable any more.
  
  
The US strategy shift was defeated by China in the  financial war on the Eastern Front, and on the Western Front, all the  accumulation of the United States in the Middle East was completely bankrupt.  For the countries and nations that oppose hegemony, now it is the moment  before dawn. Soon will come the daybreak and a new world order!
  
  
The above analysis and conclusions will soon be proved.  Regarding the secondissue of the future of transnational capital after the US  financial defeat, we will talk in the next article.
  
  

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